Bitcoin Price Update: Understanding the Bullish and Bearish BTC Scenarios


the Bullish and Bearish BTC Scenarios





While the market is showing signs of promise, it’s also stuck in what we call a “gray zone,” where confirmation of a bullish reversal or a deeper correction remains elusive. 
In this article, we’ll explore Bitcoin’s current technical landscape, highlight critical support and resistance levels, and discuss what traders should watch for in the coming weeks. Understanding Bitcoin’s Current Market PositionBitcoin’s price action in early August 2025 is at a critical juncture. After a strong rally earlier in the year, the cryptocurrency experienced a significant pullback from its July high, retracing in a corrective three-wave structure. 
This correction has brought Bitcoin to a point where it’s testing key levels near its previous all-time high from May, around $111,700. 
While this reaction isn’t inherently bearish, the lack of impulsive upside momentum leaves the market in a delicate state.
The price is hovering in a gray zone, where promising price action from recent lows lacks the conviction needed to confirm a substantial bottom. 
Traders are waiting for Bitcoin to break above critical resistance levels to signal the start of the next bullish leg, potentially targeting $126,000 in an optimistic scenario. 
However, there’s also the possibility of a deeper pullback, which could test lower support levels before any significant upward move. Let’s break down the technicals to understand what’s at play.
The Bigger Picture: Wave Analysis and Market CyclesFrom a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s price action is being analyzed through the lens of Elliott Wave theory, which helps traders identify potential market cycles and turning points. 
In the current structure, Bitcoin could be in the midst of a larger third wave, with the potential for a fifth-wave rally to complete the cycle. 
This white scenario, as we’ll call it, suggests that Bitcoin could see a breakout toward $126,000 if it garners enough upside momentum.
Alternatively, there’s a yellow scenario that allows for a deeper pullback, possibly in the form of a B-wave within a corrective structure. This could lead to a final dip, potentially testing lower Fibonacci levels before resuming an upward trajectory. 
The lack of confirmation from recent lows, particularly from the swing low formed last Saturday, keeps both scenarios in play. 
For more on technical analysis in crypto, explore our detailed guides at Coinfarmer.
Key Levels to Watch for a Bullish BreakoutFor Bitcoin to confirm the start of the next bullish leg, it needs to break above specific resistance levels. The first critical level is $115,100, which would signal a potential reversal from the recent Tuesday low. 
A more reliable confirmation would come with a break above $116,220, which not only aligns with the golden ratio Fibonacci level but also surpasses previous swing highs from August 1st. These levels are pivotal for bulls looking to establish momentum.
On the shorter time frames, such as the 30-minute chart, Bitcoin’s price action shows a five-wave move up from the Tuesday low, followed by a deep three-wave pullback. 
While this structure suggests potential for higher prices, the lack of a decisive breakout above resistance keeps the market vulnerable. 
Traders should monitor these levels closely, as a sustained move above $116,220 could ignite bullish sentiment and pave the way for a rally toward $126,000.
Support Levels and the Risk of a Deeper CorrectionWhile the upside potential is enticing, traders must also prepare for the possibility of a deeper correction. The micro support zone between $112,930 and $113,486 is currently holding, but a break below $112,930 could signal trouble. 
If this level fails, Bitcoin could test the Tuesday low, and a further decline might breach the Saturday low around $111,700. Should this happen, the focus would shift to key Fibonacci support levels at $110,500 and $108,780.
A more significant concern would arise if Bitcoin breaks below $107,600, with additional support at $105,230 and a critical level at $98,480. 
A drop below $74,500 would confirm a bearish market structure, but this level remains far from the current price action. 
As long as pullbacks remain corrective and critical support levels hold, the bullish outlook remains intact. 
The Gray Zone: Patience Is Key for TradersThe current market environment is challenging for traders, as Bitcoin’s price action lacks the clarity needed for high-confidence trades. 
The promising price action from recent lows is encouraging, but the absence of a strong impulsive move keeps the market in a fragile state. This gray zone requires patience, as premature entries could lead to losses if the market opts for a deeper correction.
Traders should focus on key technical indicators, such as the five-wave structures and Fibonacci levels, to gauge the market’s next move. 
The micro structures from the Saturday low suggest a slight bias toward a breakout, but without a clear move above resistance, the risk of another low remains. 
Staying disciplined and waiting for confirmation will be crucial in navigating this uncertain period.
Strategies for Trading Bitcoin in 2025For traders looking to capitalize on Bitcoin’s next move, a balanced approach is essential. Here are some strategies to consider:
  1. Wait for Confirmation: Avoid chasing trades in the gray zone. Wait for a decisive break above $115,100 or $116,220 before entering long positions. This reduces the risk of being caught in a false breakout.
  2. Monitor Support Levels: Keep an eye on the micro support zone between $112,930 and $113,486. A break below this zone could signal a deeper correction, providing opportunities for short-term bearish trades or accumulation at lower levels.
  3. Use Technical Tools: Leverage Elliott Wave analysis and Fibonacci retracement levels to identify potential entry and exit points. These tools can help you anticipate market turning points and manage risk effectively.
  4. Stay Informed: Follow real-time updates and community discussions to stay ahead of market developments. Join our community at Coinfarmer for additional insights and analysis on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
What’s Next for Bitcoin?As Bitcoin navigates this gray zone, the market is poised for a significant move. A breakout above $116,220 could ignite a rally toward $126,000, aligning with the bullish white scenario. 
Conversely, a break below $112,930 could open the door to deeper Fibonacci support levels, potentially testing $108,780 or lower. 
Traders must remain vigilant, as the next few days could provide the clarity needed to confirm Bitcoin’s direction.
For those eager to stay updated, consider following our community on X, where we share additional insights on Bitcoin and other assets, such as SPX 6,900, not covered in our regular blog posts. 
Engaging with a community of like-minded traders can provide valuable perspectives and help you refine your trading strategy. 
ConclusionBitcoin’s price action in August 2025 is a test of patience for traders, as the market lingers in a gray zone with no clear direction. While the potential for a bullish breakout toward $126,000 remains, the risk of a deeper correction looms if key support levels fail. 
By monitoring critical resistance and support levels, leveraging technical analysis, and staying informed, traders can position themselves for success in this dynamic market. 
Stay tuned to Coinfarmer for the latest updates and strategies to navigate the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency trading.
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